Hot Starts and the Long Run

So, you thought, a couple of weeks ago, when the preseason was wrapping up and the predictions were rolling in, your team had a playoff berth / division title / the President's Trophy on lock, only to see said team look flat / disappoint / fall on their collective face? Take heart, it's a long season.

So, you thought, a couple of weeks ago, that your team was looking at an early postseason exit / April golf / a lottery pick, only to see said team click on just about every level while cruising to a division lead? Take heed, it's a long season.

Obviously, winning a lot of games out of the gate is better than fumbling away points that might prove costly in the long run. Duh.

But losing some games and taking an ego reduction can be a positive, too.

October is a better time for a club to realize they don't have the right coach or system or have a bad mix of talent on the ice, than, say, the month between the trade deadline and the end of the regular season.

Coming into 2009-10, a vast majority of hockey prognosticators had pegged four specific teams to vie for the the Eastern Conference crown. The reigning Cup holders in Pittsburgh, 09's top playoff seed Boston, two-time Hart Trophy winner Alex Ovechkin's Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers and their new acquisition, the monstrous defenseman Chris Pronger.

Pittsburgh hopped out in front of the pack early on the strength of a 9-2 start. The Pens are without the services of veteran puck-moving D-man Sergei Gonchar for the next six weeks as the power play quarterback recovers from a broken wrist. Pittsburgh got a season-saving spark when Gonchar returned from a long-term knee injury last year, but have to learn to cope with his absence this year in an Eastern Conference that figures to be deeper. Is it time for the Penguins to break some eggs and hunt for another offensive defenseman to complement and eventually replace the 35-year-old Gonchar? They'll have a pretty good idea by Thanksgiving.

Washington's trademark discipline issue and an uncharacteristically weak power play (15.4% down from 25.2% in 08-09) have been challenges, but the Caps have posted a 7-2-2 mark and lead the Southeast division by seven points. Capitals GM George McPhee has made it clear he won't sacrifice elite prospects for veteran stopgaps, but showed in 2008 that he'll make a trade if the price is right - and the 2010 Capitals have already made clear that they'll be in need of more depth up front and on defense as the season progresses. All of that hinges on Michael Nylander and his almost $5 million cap hit. If McPhee can finally unload the Swede on a team more inclined to make use of his skill set, the Caps may finally be able to land that elusive stay-at-home blueliner the team - and their fans - have long coveted. Nylander was loaned to AHL Grand Rapids (Detroit) on a conditioning stint last week, stepped into a new lineup cold and dished out five assists over three games. Take that for what it's worth, but the pivot looks more movable than this time last week.

Boston (5-4-1, currently 9th in the East) and Philadelphia (5-4-1, currently 8th in the East) have had their flaws exposed for all to see - early and often.

The Bruins' special teams play has been terrible. A good way to gauge a club's special teams is the "100% Rule" (our first THB original!) Take your team's power play and penalty kill percentages and add them together. Is that number greater than or equal to 100? They're solid. Less than 100? There's something to be desired. The Bruins' total is 90.6 (PP - 15%, PK - 75.6). Yikes. The B's have already peddled under-performing forward Chuck Kobasew to Minnesota for a bag of goodies headlined by forward Craig Weller, owner of 14 points in 95 NHL games in seven pro seasons. Boston then added forward Daniel Paille, discarded by Buffalo after the 2002 first-rounder burned through his last chance to prove himself as a consistent scorer. The fact that Paille was the first player traded to Boston by Buffalo in the Sabres' history gives some idea of how his former team estimated him. The Bruins are banking on minor tweaks making a big impact. If that doesn't work, some marquee names might be next.

The Flyers' special teams have been outstanding (PP - 25%, PK - 85.4%) but that hasn't stopped Philly captain Mike Richards from icing out the media on virtually every level amid talk that he and some his teammates party too much. Add a couple of notorious headcases like goaltender Ray Emery - whose antics cost him his job in Ottawa in 2008 and forced a move to pro hockey in Russia in 2009 when no NHL team wanted to risk bringing him on board - and forward Danny Carcillo - who was once ejected from an AHL game...during a shootout. Veteran D-man Kimmo Timonen has been off to an uncharacteristically rocky start posting a poor -10 +/- rating through 10 games this season (down from +19 last year). Flyer fans have taken to the team's online message board to call for head coach John Stevens' firing already. This team is loaded with a lot of talent and a lot of baggage - if they can rally around each other - Philly is looking at a parade. If they can't they're looking a fire sale.

A few teams have looked stronger out of the gate than many were expecting, including Phoenix, the NHL's version of the Montreal Expos. But none have looked better - or more legitimate - to this point than the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avs, assumed to be one of the worst teams in the NHL coming into this year, have thrived in front of the stellar goaltending of free-agent acquisition Craig Anderson (9-1-2, 1.97 GAA, .940 SV%). The one-time journeyman backup is finally coming into his own at the age of 28. Anderson has flaunted his athleticism out of the butterfly throughout his pro career, but has tended to fall victim to mental mistakes and consistency issues. Anderson's play in relief of Tomas Vokoun in Florida last year put some of those questions to bed, and earned him the starting gig in Denver. The Avs have pretty nice balance up front between emerging stars Paul Stastny and Wojtek Wolski leading the team offensively, supplemented by veteran Milan Hejduk and rookies Ryan O'Reilly and Matt Duchene. Realistically, the Avs could be looked at a playoff berth out of a strong Northwestern division in April and Anderson could be looking at a spot on the United States Olympic team in February. The Avalanche could also fall victim to the dreaded mid-season swoon that tends to hit the younger teams hardest.

If this first month of the 2009-10 season has shown us anything it's that preseason predictions can be proven worthless really quick. More inportantly, and less obviously, it's productive to look past the face-value of division standings before getting carried away with pessimism or optimism and remember that Cups aren't won - or lost - in October.


-John

Over the Boards - Our First Shift

Welcome to the maiden voyage of The Hockey Blog. Over the next several weeks (maybe months or even years if we feel like it) some of the finest hockey minds American University has to offer will bring you their opinions on the greatest game the world has ever known and the players, coaches, executives, owners, officials, fans, broadcasters and mascots therein.

Have an opinion about THB? Something you want to see us write about? Think we have no idea what we're talking about? Leave a comment and we'll address it. Unless you think we have no idea what we're talking about - that will be totally disregarded.

-John